Why hydrogen - any type - will be part of the energy transition
Hydrogen - however it is made - is a popular replacement for many fossil fuels since when used, that is, burnt for energy, it does not emit CO2.
The colors
Grey: is produced by splitting fossil fuels - mainly natural gas - into hydrogen and CO2. This process is a heavy emitter, because the CO2 is released into the atmosphere. For this reason it is not a subject when talking about hydrogen helping us reach zero emissions.
Blue: is produced by splitting fossil fuels - mainly natural gas - into hydrogen and CO2. This process capture most of the CO2 emissions making it a potential very low emissions process. No matter the technological advances in this space, the cost of blue hydrogen will always be tied to the input cost of fossil fuels - mainly natural gas - and the cost of handling and storing the captured CO2.
Green: is produced by using renewable electricity to split water into hydrogen and oxygen. The process is called electrolysis and is typically also behind the expression “Power2X”.
No matter the technological advances in this space, the cost of green hydrogen will always be tied to the input cost of renewable electricity.
Natural*: is created by nature in subsurface processes. Mainly a process called serpenization. It can be extracted without any CO2 emission, and since it has no input cost, it is by far the cheapest form of hydrogen. At an estimated price of ~$1/Kg, natural hydrogen will be as cheap as fossil fuels, cheaper than Grey and 3-5 times cheaper than Blue and Green Hydrogen.
*Some refer to natural hydrogen as white, gold, native or even geological, but natural hydrogen is the most used term.
Hydrogen demand is expected to grow six-fold
Hydrogen is the only “clean burning” gas and it will play a role in decarbonizing sectors that are difficult or impossible to electrify. It can be used in its pure form or as part of other substances, e.g., ammonia, sustainable aviation fuel or e-methanol.
As of march 2023, +33 countries have a dedicated hydrogen strategy and more than 500B USD has been committed to hydrogen projects around the world.
In addition, the US inflations reductions act, supports a number of green technologies (through tax credits), including hydrogen. Zero emission Hydrogen can receive a $3/Kg tax credit, making US produced Green hydrogen cheaper than the European equivalent, even including the transport to Europe. Using the same calculation, US produced natural hydrogen can have a production cost below zero (estimated productions cost of $1/Kg before deducting $3/Kg in tax credits), making it much much cheaper than all European alternatives.
How big a role hydrogen will play in reaching zero emissions will ultimately depend on how cheap zero emissions hydrogen will end up being.
Note: When people talk about hydrogen today, they almost exclusively mean Green or Blue hydrogen, since most people are not aware of the existence of natural hydrogen. They also tend to focus on the place where we could use hydrogen, and not the places where we already do. Industries like fertilizer production require a lot of hydrogen and this 130B USD market in itself emits ~2% of the world's emissions. This production will of course also need to be decarbonized and it is an obvious first place to start using natural hydrogen.
Hydrogen production - the challenges
Naturally there are different views on how best to reach zero emissions. The main challenge for hydrogen is perceived by critics to be related to production methods and transport.
Production of Blue hydrogen
Critics argue that the carbon capture technology is immature and that reaching hydrogens full potential using Blue hydrogen would require unrealistic amounts of CO2 storage with all the expenses and risks associated.
Production of Green hydrogen
Critics argue that the production of hydrogen using renewable electricity makes no sense, since it is very expensive and an ineffective use of electricity given that the process wastes ~25% of the energy used.
Reaching the full potential of hydrogen using green hydrogen would require all the renewable electricity that the world have already installed. Leaving no electricity for all the things using electricity already (e.g., homes, datacenters, electric vehicles and heat pumps).
Natural hydrogen
Importantly, these critics have to do with how hydrogen is produced. Given that natural hydrogen does not have to be produced, it does not face these problems. That is, there are no need of CO2 storage and no waste of electricity. And at an estimated cost of ~$1/Kg, natural hydrogen will also be much cheaper. This makes it a real alternative. Right now and without subsidies or CO2 taxes.
Transport and storage - the many solutions
Main challenges
hydrogen has a very low volumetric density, (that is, the same amount of energy takes up much more space as hydrogen than is does as e.g., diesel).
hydrogen is a small molecule and it can easily escape from the storage materials we use today (for fossil fuels).
The above are unavoidable facts and complicates the transport and storage for all types of hydrogen, no matter how it is produces (but by no means makes it impossible).
However, we have to find alternative solutions, as equally unavoidable facts are that:
fossil fuels emit CO2 and we need to stop using it (even though they are convenient to handle).
renewable electricity is not suitable for all sectors, it is not always accessible (e.g., on cloudy, no wind days) and it requires a lot of space that we might only have far from where the energy is needed.
Solutions - ways to store and transport hydrogen
By road: Transporting hydrogen is already done today, using special cylinders (tanks) and pipelines. While hydrogen transport by road (in tanks) is a lot less effective than transporting diesel in the same way (the density problem), it will make sense in some situations taking CO2 emissions and the cost of hydrogen (read: cheap natural hydrogen) into account.
By pipeline: Using pipelines for hydrogen transport is very efficient and will be the obvious choice when moving large quantities. Hydrogen pipelines already exists and when moving energy over long distances pipelines have some advantages (like storage) compared to moving it as electricity. Pipelines are also cost competitive - especially if the hydrogen is not produced from electricity, e.g., natural hydrogen.
By ship: Finally, hydrogen can also be compressed and economically transported by ship on medium distances.
Moving hydrogen as “something else”: Hydrogen can also be moved as part of other substances. And actually, combining hydrogen with other atoms makes the final product more energy dense, not less. By doing this, hydrogen can be moved with nitrogen, e.g., ammonia (fertilizer), or with carbon, e.g., methanol or synthetic natural gas (identical to fossil natural gas). And for these substances, a worldwide transport and storage infrastructure have already been build.
